For decades, agriculture in the Northeast has been split between two models: large-scale commodity farms and small-scale alternative farms. But those lines are starting to blur. Both models have been under greater pressure in the last decade, and the future is pointing toward convergence.

40 Years of Small Farms: What Have We Learned?

The modern small farm movement really took off in the late1980s with the growth of organic farms, farmers markets, and Community Supported Agriculture. Local food systems picked up steam quickly—spurred by environmentalism, distrust of industrial food systems, and a desire to “know your farmer”.

The number of farmers markets in the U.S. grew from 1,755 in 1994 to over 8,000 by 2019, according to the USDA Agricultural Marketing Service. But despite enthusiasm, small farms have struggled to scale or remain profitable. Most relied heavily on off-farm income. Survivorship beyond year ten is rare without significant adaptation or diversification. By 2017, the number of small farms had plateaued.

The biggest burden for many small farms is their dependence on the owner-operator. Success or failure hinges on one or two people working exhausting hours and wearing every hat imaginable. Farms that have failed to build systems and teams struggle to outlive the founder’s energy. Nominal success has often come at the expense of relationships and personal well-being. Business growth and refined systems won’t make a farmer “free of the business” (impossible), but it will create breathing room to grow, pivot, transfer, or take a vacation.

The Pressure on Commodity Farms

Commodity farms—especially in the Northeast—are facing their own existential pressure. With farmland values continuing to rise, the costs of inputs climbing, the possibility of “peak yield”, and a lack of succession planning, viability is being squeezed from both inside and outside the farm gates.

Commodity farms are competing on a global level under unfavorable local cost-of-living, labor, regulatory, and space constraints.

Even many of today’s profitable commodity farms are buckling under the weight of generational transitions — first, finding a qualified and sufficiently-capitalized successor; and second, supporting multiple generations (often, senior generations ill-prepared for retirement and junior generations raising a family) under a single vertical.

Labor and Automation: A Growing Divide

Across both traditional and alternative models, labor has become a major challenge. Small diversified farms almost always over-depend on the labor of the owner-operator and struggle to find & retain domestic or foreign workers. The labor problems afflicting larger farms are well-documented.

Automation is advancing rapidly, but these gains translate to increased profits primarily when farms can control prices. In commodity systems, efficiency gains are often swallowed by the market. In contrast, farms with price-setting power—those selling direct, branding their products, or differentiating through quality—can retain more of the value they create.

This shift favors convergence: farms blending efficiency with market control will outperform those stuck in either extreme.

Convergence is Already Happening in Retail and Restaurants

The blending of models is visible on shelves and menus everywhere. Independent grocers, co-ops, and major retailers now offer premium-tier products—pasture-raised eggs, regenerative grains, local cheeses, nutrient-dense produce—alongside national commodity brands.

These products aren’t just novelties. They’ve created entirely new food categories and helped raise the price floor for food across the board. That expectation creates space for regional food businesses to survive—and even thrive—within a higher-margin model.

Farm-to-table restaurants have helped reset the economics of dining out. By charging a premium for quality, story-driven food, they’ve raised the price tag across the entire restaurant sector. That new expectation creates opportunities for food producers to take home more dollars while serving a broader audience. People are now willing to spend more on food. Some consumers are priced out altogether, which is a genuine social challenge, but one that I would not place on the backs of food producers.

The broader point is that the market is open for more entrants. Consumers are ready to buy, whether on store shelves, online, or front-of-the-house. The raised price floor gives both commodity and niche farms a better chance to succeed, provided they can step into this space with strong systems and clear strategy. Policy shifts, consumer awareness of food-as-nutrition, and regulatory frameworks like MAHA are also shaping the landscape, making it easier for farms that adapt to capture durable opportunity.

The Role of Demographics and Declining Populations

A final layer of convergence pressure comes from rural depopulation and demographic patterns. In the Northeast, declining birth rates, aging populations, and migration to other parts of the country are hollowing out rural labor forces and urban customer bases.

Small farms in rural areas can’t depend on local markets or local labor to survive and large farms can’t default to intrafamily succession plans.

These trends point to a need for "premium commodity" strategies—where farms produce high-quality, traceable, nutrient-dense food at scale that can command a premium and can be sold regionally, nationally or globally.

What Comes Next: Not a Dichotomy, But a Convergence

In the Northeast, for agriculture to remain viable, we need to see the following:

Small farms sizing up from “niche” while maintaining ecological and community values
Larger farms adopting advanced soil health practices, direct-to-market revenue diversifiers, and values-based branding
Farms that embrace automation, AI and technology AND remain committed community-builders
Goals-based planning for multiple forms of wealth both on and off the farm
Financial resilience balanced with ecological “regeneration” in all models

Farmers will need to learn how to blend models. We need utilitarianism and virtue ethics, efficiency and values-led practices, and price-makers working with economies of scale.

What’s my bull case for the next 10–20 years for agriculture in the Northeast? Farms will start to plan from day one — with a strategy that integrates personal health- and wealth-building, tax strategy, operational efficiency, revenue and asset diversification, and a brand founded on a deep reason-to-be. And these farms will flourish.

* yes, I used AI to help write this. The hamsters on the treadmill of my mind do not move with haste.

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Convergence: The Future of Agriculture in the Northeast